Supermarket. Image Credit- Gypsy Jolie. License By CC 2.0

The Flaws Of Pandemic Modeling and Mitigation Tactics: Grocery Shopping Fostering COVID-19 Herd Immunity

Is Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, promoting a a valid strategy for fighting COVID-19 in asking us to “Flatten the Curve”?

Or, are we interfering with the natural process of building herd immunity?

Herd immunity refers to protection from an infectious disease in a population, and can be induced by vaccination or exposure to a pathogen.

Once sufficient numbers of people have built up antibodies to a specific germ, we’ve attained herd immunity, and the pathogen cannot spread like wildfire any longer.

Supermarket. Image Credit- Gypsy Jolie. License By CC 2.0

Supermarket. Image Credit- Gypsy Jolie. License By CC 2.0

If we were all to stay at home, we’d never build herd immunity. A virus would just keep circulating if even a few individuals remain infected and contagious, once the stay-at-home order is lifted.

While we can’t go to work, bring our kids to the playground, or worship publicly, we continue to shop at the supermarket.

Fox News’s Tucker Carlson rightly pointed out that everyone in a zip code goes to the same supermarket, and so all these efforts at social distancing are nullified in this act.

To further negate the effects of social distancing, in most instances, Mr. Carlson explained it’s a family member living under the same roof that returns home with the groceries.

While not a scientist, Tucker Carlson has been the nonpartisan voice of reasoned thought throughout this pandemic, questioning the popular narrative with logic and clarity of thought.


Might this one hole in Dr. Fauci’s net be helping to inadvertently spread COVID-19, via aerosolized sputum contaminated with viral particles?

Of course, this is the opposite of the stated goal. But maybe it’s actually a good thing. Maybe home quarantines are useless, anyway.

Perhaps social distancing and handwashing alone are sufficiently effective strategies for fighting the virus.

Is there any valid scientific proof that a society-wide shutdown is what’s called for, or any precedent to this practice? The World Heath Organization doesn’t even agree that it’s effective.

After all, flattening the curve is not only lessening the peak of COVID-19, but it’s also extending its reign over our society, in terms of length of time the virus will be spreading.

The logic behind this idea is to keep vital medical resources from becoming overwhelmed. Of course,that’s a good strategy.

But what if an unconsidered side-effect of keeping COVID-19 circulating longer are mass unemployment, food shortages, bankruptcies, suicides from depression, and overall societal breakdown?



Since around 85% of people who contract COVID-19 are asymptomatic anyway, we may be unknowingly spreading the virus all around, and none of us ever even knowing this is the case.

In the future, perhaps even wearing a face mask in public might become a practice that no longer turns heads. After all, in areas of NYC where there are a high percentage of Asian people, like Flushing, Queens, many already do this in public, as they, or their family members, have dealt with similar outbreaks in Asia before.

But what if COVID-19 is transmissible through the eyes, as many airborne viruses are? Then, forcing citizens to wear face masks in public at risk of fines or worse, cannot be justified.

In the AJMC medical journal, in an article by Gianna Milillo, we find this statement, “…the American Academy of Ophthalmology (AAO) observed that some reports suggest “the virus can cause conjunctivitis and possibly be transmitted by aerosol contact with conjunctiva.”

And, the eyes are wet, a perfect medium for wayward viral particles floating on the air to easily adhere to. So, goggle up. A mask may be insufficient protection.

And, what about washing hands? That’s actually always a good idea. It’s never going to stop being so. What we were taught in kindergarten was sound advice.

Good old soap and water, a thorough scrubbing, and hand sanitizer is not even needed. Do this 365 days a year, whether there’s a “bug going around” or not.

Why not return to the model that worked for ages, that is, keeping those vulnerable members of the population, such as the elderly, or individuals with serious pre-existing health conditions, away from crowds, while permitting the rest of us to carry on as usual?

Knut Wittkowski, Ph.D., the former head of the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Research Design at the Rockefeller University in New York City believes we should enact that strategy in a video interview with The Public Project.

“People are social, and even in times of social distancing, they have contacts; and any of those contacts could spread the disease,” Wittkowski rightly stated.

But is that really so bad?

According to the data, probably not. Wittkowski continues, “…”About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children.”

In following China’s lead, Dr. Wittkowski thinks we are following a failed strategy:

“We had two other SARS viruses before. Or, Coronavirus. It’s not the first coronavirus that comes out, and it won’t be the last. And for all respiratory diseases, we have the same type of an epidemic. If you leave it alone, it comes for two weeks, it peaks, and it goes for two weeks and it’s gone.”

The President should immediately, and with prejudice, end all stay-at-home quarantine orders for the general population.

Any governor or mayor resisting should be brought into line by the National Guard, much like the National Guard was used to enforce school integration.

This will be a reintegration of sorts, but not based along racial lines. Such an effort will be the enforced reintegration of all Americans into work and society.

If local or state leaders wish to keep us all from interacting publicly, and don’t feel like complying, there may not be a choice.

There is no scientific consensus among the experts that this the current approach is a valid means to ending this pandemic.

So what do we do? Which scientists and medical researchers are right?

Social scientists and economists know their disciplines. And, it’s clear to most of them that this is have unforeseen disastrous effects in those domains.

While Dr. Fauci’s intentions are good, this experiment in quarantining entire populations may be a failed one.

Waiting for a vaccine to be developed and deployed is ludicrous. By the time this happens, there may not be much of an economy left.

There are many research teams working furiously toward vaccines for COVID-19. There are even solutions in their final phases of testing.

But can we wait? This is not a game; if our political leaders take their cues from well-intentioned, but erroneous medical pundits relying on flawed models, the suffering that may ensue could dwarf the COVID-19 effects quite quickly.

As there isn’t complete scientific consensus among the experts, is this compelling reason to abrogate our inalienable civil rights guaranteed to us by the Constitution and Bill of Rights?

This is a good question.

Former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb believes that the Coronavirus is no joke:

“I think [that] given the profile of this virus, it’s likely it would have been far more deadly than the Spanish flu.”

This assessment is based on the notion that if COVID-19 had occurred in 1918, it would have been more devastating, as available medical technology at the time was insufficient to deal with patients requiring critical care services.

However, the Spanish flu did not pass over 85% of those infected, barely causing symptoms. Those infected were usually not spared, and there were fewer cases of “light” symptoms.

While sanitation has improved, as well as general knowledge about nutrition, it’s debatable whether these factors weigh so heavily, or if lack of available medical technology, like ventilators, would really have made such an impact on the death toll.

Most patients requiring mechanical ventilation did not make it, according to London’s Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre. Only about 30% make it. The Lancet Respiratory Medicine Journal, the most respected medical journal on the topic, reported that up to 80% of U.S. patients die, even after intervention using a ventilator.  And so, the Former FDA commissioner’s assessment is unsound.

The truth is, there are many perspectives and opinions on COVID-19, even among the experts. That is true for both the projected total number of casualties, as well as what measures must be taken to stem the spread and how society must change after the pandemic ends.

Whom should we believe? Only time will tell. But be cautious, think critically, and of course, be hesitant to yield our hard-won American freedoms at the mere suggestion of doom by a talking head, no matter how credentialed.

The logical fallacy of the the appeal to authority is a poor argument; ask question, and know there is no solid scientific consensus at this time.


 

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo had this to say on former Mayor Giuliani’s radio program on 77WABC AM:

“All of the projections, by the way, all those statisticians have been 100 percent wrong at this point. And we’ve been following the models because that was the only blueprint, but they haven’t turned out to be correct…[it’s] Sort of like the old days when we tried to predict a storm by listening to the weather forecasts”

46 Comments

  • Avatar Jenn Thomas says:

    All the reporter seems to care about is the economy. People first. This is shameful. How is this even reporting?

    • This is not equally dangerous for everyone:

      “We have an increasingly older age demographic across virtually all countries, as well as unprecedented rates of obesity, smoking, diabetes, and heart and lung disease, and an ever-growing population of people who are immunocompromised—all comorbidities that lead to significantly higher risks of severe disease and death from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).”

      From March 31 Lancet (click on my name to see it)

      • Avatar bye bye boomers says:

        So let’s destroy the youth and out future for some old farts that are half-way out the door anyway.

        They don’t call it boomer remover for no reason!

    • Avatar ✝△ TOTAL AUTHORITY SI says:

      Look, grow up. I trust this paper more than I trust you. Why? They don’t rely on a single source for information. You just defer to whoever talks loudest. That’s not going to cut it.

      We,the people, demand that President Trump takes Total Authority over the USA. Enough of these f****** games. Our president was polite and weathered so much BS so far, we don’t have any more time for these ridiculous games.

      ““When somebody is president of the United States, the authority is total,” Trump said at the White House. “The governors know that.”

      YES, SIR.

      Sorry, these fools are not killing our Nation and our world that easily. President Trump should order a thorough investigation of this whole debacle. Again, nice try fools. This time, you lose. TREASONOUS M*****F******

      See how quickly the media turn it all into politics? I’ve already unsubscribed from my old newspaper. A disgusting rag that is anti-Trump, 100%. Will I miss them? I’ll miss some aspects, but I won’t miss their blatant pandering to these destructive interests. This has nothing to do with politics. Give up your ridiculous ideas and realize this is about survival, plain and simple.

      Citizens United Against Planned Destruction of the U.S., Europe, Africa, and Beyond.

      THE EMPROROR FAUCI WEARS NO CLOTHES

      ✝△ THE AUTHORITY

      • Avatar Shanice Jones says:

        That’s truly laughable. You come on here and call yourself ‘the authority’ but you don’t have any authority over anyone and appropriating a cross is even more sad. I’m sure you’re not a pastor or even deacon anywhere, let alone a churchgoer. If you’re somehow implying you speak for the authority of the church. I know you are full of yourself and really you need to cool your ego.

        • Avatar Biden 2020 says:

          I notice that Trump supporters have picked up his enlarged ego. Sure, this commenter is the authority. Just like trump is the total authority. All just dreams. The governors know this and no one is afraid. We need to stop being bullied. If keeping art home for nine moths is what’s needed to save lives then I’m all for it.

          • Avatar comedy relief seeker says:

            “We need to stop being bullied. ”

            OK, so let’s all just sit in our houses on our hands and stop being bullied. muahahaha

            Funniest comment I’ve read on a forum in ages.

      • Avatar Labradoodle Owner says:

        Wow. You really trusts Trump the o***** man. He’s nothing but an egotistical maniac. The Sun said that the o***** man declared himself king yet again and claims there will be no challenge to his almighty rule.

        ‘DONALD Trump slammed a “mutiny” after nine Democrat governors united to re-open task forces and plan the end of the shutdown.’

        Why trust this man? He only cares about how many likes he gets like a teen. He has to grow up and we need to make him remember we’re not on a playground and this isn’t a popularity contest. Nor has he been crowned royal king Donald.

      • Avatar rocks in your head bub says:

        rocks in your head bub

    • Avatar TA says:

      Trump’s top trade adviser blasts ‘tone-deaf’ medical experts leading the US’s coronavirus response and says the economic shutdown is worse than the virus

      Peter Navarro
      Assistant to the President and Director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy

      https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-adviser-navarro-economic-shutdown-worse-coronavirus-medical-experts-2020-4

    • Avatar lenzie adams says:

      My take on this? A bunch of cowards so lame they don’t even register for accounts. Forget the fact that it’s not even your real name. This isn’t facebook. But they don’t even use a fake name on an account. This is why anonymous comments suck. No one feels accountable for what they say and so people get diarhea of the mouth..

    • Avatar B. Ruscigno says:

      Look I have a family to feed. I can’t work right now because I’m not allowed to. Never in my wildest dreams did I ever imagine a reality like this. I have a job. I need to get back to it. The IRS payment didn’t come in. How do I reach a live operator? I’m all for restarting the US.

  • Avatar ANON says:

    None of this makes any sense. Are we living in a medical dictatorship?

    After reading this, I;m not so sure the answer is no. I was unaware that so many reputable medical professionals disagree with Dr. Fucci.

    I for one think it is unreasonable to keep us all at home. Requesting that the elderly and frail stay home is one thing. Commanding us all to do it is another.

    • Avatar "The Finnster" says:

      It’s called being responsible. Do you go to the doctor and tell them what medication you need? Stop being so paranoid. Dr. Faucci is an expert in the field, all these other people in this article I’m not so sure.

    • Avatar Jenn Thomas says:

      Are you a doctor? Didn’t think so.

      Anyone can disagree. Even other doctors.

      But are they right or wrong on this? That’s what’s most important. I’d say support our first responders and just learn to adjust. We can’t make a mistake right now so err on the side of caution.

      • Avatar my guess is as good as yours says:

        But are YOU a doctor? Pot meet kettle…..

        This is why I hate open comment sections without real names. Its so dumb.

        The truth is we don’t know what anyone on here commenting does for a living. My best guesses. OK, Larry is a dentist. Jenn Thomas is a social worker. The Finnster is a teacher. ANON is a cop. TA escaped a loony bin and missed his meds. Quentin works in a deli? haha Jack works with accounting. And Dester is a real doctor. Anyone care to correct me?

  • Avatar Quentin 'Pastrami' R. (shout out to Bulls Head!) says:

    Fair presentation. But then the author goes on to say the president should lift the ban. If we don’t know one way or the other why say this?

    • Avatar Jacked-In says:

      I am 100% for it. We can’t shut down the world every time there’s a disease outbreak. This is all a load of s***. Look at the interests behind who’s pushing all this. They stand to make a killing from a vaccine. That’s why the don’t want anyone talking about potential options to get better and instead say it’s only a vaccine that will work. President Trump wasn’t my favorite I have to admit but after this I respect him 1000 times more. He had the b**** to stand up and say what he saw. I for one think the emperor wears no clothes and this is all a lot of horses****. President Trump did the best he could. If he called BS the liberal media would use this event to destroy his chances for reelection. But I think this is all Dems v. Repubs. Those pushing for lockdown forever are either 1. Democrats or 2. invested in vaccines somehow.

      Jacked-In (Marty)

    • Avatar Jenn Thomas says:

      Cabin fever maybe? It’s downright irresponsible. This is to ensure the safety of citizens. It may feel like a punishment but it’s really not. Think of your elders. Stop thinking only of yourself!

    • Avatar Larry Has A Secret says:

      Critical time. Waiting can ruin all our hard work. And, I do mean ALL.

      Quentin, you seem intelligent, can’t you figure it out?

      • Avatar Larry's secret's safe with us says:

        Totally confused. Larry whatever your secret is, it’s sure safe with you. You can’t even meaningfully reply to a post. I have zero idea what your position is.

      • Avatar Quentin "Pastrami" R says:

        No, I can’t. Can you? This is what bothers me. We’re at the mercy of interests that cna make a killing $$ from a vaccine. And there’s also the political angle. This will absolutely kill Trumps’ chances of re-election. Biden? Winning? ahah No way! But now it may just happen.

  • Avatar Labradoodle Owner says:

    To the writer -so you know better than Doctor Faucci a specialist?

    Sorry but I don’t care what your medical background is. He’s the expert here. Stick to the reporting and keep your opinions out of this.

    I don’t think we can pick and choose because what if we are wrong? Stay the course, keep your distance, and one day this will end.

    • Avatar stay the course? seriously?? says:

      Oh please. Seriously you need to get over yourself.

      Did you even follow the links? Everything they said was true.

      Now I don’t know who to believe. It was also just anti-Trump bulls**** the entire time.

      Yes people died. Yes CORONA is a killer. But shut down the world for it? No way. Once the meat is off the shelves you’ll be crying for this to end. use your brains and see that this isn’t just some guy’s opinion. They did the research. it’s all there for you.

    • Avatar GI MOE says:

      Yeah let’s stay the course til we have nationwide starvation. I’m disgusted how fast my fellow Americans were willing to give up their freedoms based on what some s****** r****** says. Commies? nope! Gang violence? not a chance! Nuclear war? no way! hahah All it took was a freaking virus! Oh wait, RUMORS of a virus. Yes a lot of people died. But did you check facts and see how flu and other disease deaths are DOWN? And even with all this fudging of numbers there are still fewer deaths than the annual flu. I hate to see anyone die. I truly mean that. But mass starvation will do worse for us. Oh, not counting an economy that won’t be able to come back. We’ll be wishing for the good old days.

  • Avatar maniiya says:

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  • Avatar Janet says:

    I’m scared for my family and for my neighbors. I no longer know who is lying who is telling the truth who is trying to make a buck etc. This is a scary situation bc it forces us to trust someone who ‘knows best’.

    • Avatar Mason Williams says:

      Good point. This shows us just how much we’re always really at the mercy of someone else’s best judgement. Let’s hope Dr. Fauci knows his stuff and that Trump doesn’t endanger us further. Who is right and who is wrong? Maybe only history can tell us. But You’re right on with your assessment. Greed, politics, and ignorance. The fatal three.

  • Avatar fack checker says:

    42 dead in coronavirus outbreak at Virginia nursing home, more expected

    https://news.trust.org/item/20200413223657-qtb8i

    Kids don’t listen to these commenters. They are clueless. The author has a lot to learn also.

    • Avatar Junebug says:

      There is no mistaking this kills older people. I think the issue is whether closing down the world was the best tactic. Those 42 still died, didn’t they?

      They should have sealed off nursing homes, caretakers would have to remain on the campus, and then it might have been best. There are going to be other viruses in the future. The world can’t shut down every time.

    • Avatar fact checking the 'fack checker' says:

      Let’s listen to you. the ‘fack checker’. hahahah

      I clicked on all the links in this article. Searched on Google. Turns out this article is 100% legit.

      No one is debating old folks die. I am sad to learn about that, but every year nursing homes are decimated by the flu.

  • Avatar Mary Anne Costa says:

    Thank God governor Cuomo already said he’ll fight the president tooth and nail on this. You all forget about the children and the elderly. Have a heart.

    • Avatar CONPLAN 3501-08. says:

      CONPLAN 3501-08.

      • Avatar Mary Anne Costa says:

        And what is that supposed to mean?

        • Avatar CONPLAN 3501-08 says:

          Look it up, darling.

          Thankfully, we’ve planned for events like this.

          You think we trust the governors, mayors and elected (bought) officials and the scared and uninformed public?

          Sorry, toots, you just can’t be trusted.

          You have to trust –someone in– the end. Trust me, it’s all in good hands, and you have more to fear from your stupid governors than anyone else.

          Science? Medical “professionals?” lol Let the “experts” go practice their dance moves at their “swamped” hospitals.

          The situation is being monitored closely, and I have faith that it’s not going to get to the point that some cretins are hoping for.

        • Avatar ..... says:

          I looked it up. These commenters are scaring me I don’t know what they have in mind, but I don’t trust them

  • Avatar where have all the horses gone? says:

    The Commerce Clause of the Constitution cannot be violated. I know Gov. Cuomo means well but you can’t have a multi-state alliance. Sorry. NYS will have NO case. President Trump is within his rights. Why else do we have a president, if not as the leader of the ENTIRE nation?

  • Avatar 476ufm xsw45r7m fw7mxsw7m says:

    I heard from a semi-reliable source that the economy will re-open May 16th.

  • Avatar 6 twitchy 6 witchy 6 says:

    Cuomo warns of constitutional crisis ‘like you haven’t seen in decades’ if Trump tries to reopen New York
    “We don’t have a king — we have a president,” the governor warned, saying that reopening the economy too soon could result in more coronavirus deaths.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1183341#aoh=15869071785398&csi=1

    • Avatar where have all the horses gone? says:

      This is from that same NBC article.

      During a lengthy White House coronavirus task force press briefing Monday, the president said, incorrectly, that ultimately he has the power to make decisions that apply to each state.

      Incorrectly??

      What do we even have a president for then? I’m confused.

      • Avatar Jamie Kowalski says:

        There is something called checks and balances. Guess you missed your American government class in HS. *snicker*

  • Avatar 345se634san6n43nsaw34634s64z6y4w36wn6 wsa6n says:

    President Trump better wake the f*** up and stop, this total fraudulent bulls*** NOW! This is a Trojan Horse designed to ruin everything.

    President Trump…forget about re-election. You need to step up NOW.

    The population will thank you later.

    • Avatar SOS! SOS! says:

      Agreed.

      Take the reigns, Mr. President!

      Get going.

      Every day you wait, we’ll all be regretting it later.

      You’re still worried about re-election?

      They’re making it so history will make it so comparing you to Hoover, old Herbie will be a genius and savior!

      SOS! SOS! Get the f*** going.

    • Avatar .Trump voter 2016 says:

      Trump wasn’t a politician. That, among other things, was why I voted for him. Of course, 99.99999% of Americans aren’t, so that wasn’t the only qualification. But what makes a politician? Look at AOC. I admire her. I’m no die-hard Republican. I’m more of a progressive on some issues and conservative on others. But what happened to AOC? Reelection. Campaigning for Bernie. Trump is too concerned abt getting reelected. he needed to do all his s*** in ONE term only, and screw reelection.

  • Avatar WHY????????????????????????????????? says:

    Dr. Fauci Doughnuts Are Latest US Comfort Food

    https://www.voanews.com/usa/dr-fauci-doughnuts-are-latest-us-comfort-food

    • Avatar len says:

      Why don’t we just go all out and refer to the man as Saint Fauci? I mean, why not? He only said COVID was no worry a few months ago,and now in his infinite wisdom tells us we may have to be off from work and life for 1.5 years “until the last case is gone.” Clear candidate for sainthood, wouldn’t you think? Maybe that’s not going far enough. Maybe godhood is more appropriate? Lord Fauci, healer of the COVID crisis? I like the sound of that.

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