Forget California, New Jersey Is Officially America’s Luckiest Mega Millions State

Editor’s note: We previously covered a study about the most and least popular Halloween candies by state, along with one about New York losing its festive holiday spirit compared with other states. 

New Jersey produces nearly 3x more jackpot winners per capita than California, according to analysis of all 255 Mega Millions jackpots awarded between 2002 and 2025.

Key Findings

• New Jersey leads the nation with 2.83 jackpot winners per million residents—the highest per-capita rate of any state

• California ranks just 9th despite winning $6.27 billion in total prize money, more than any other state

• New Jersey outperforms California by 2.92x on a per-capita basis (2.83 vs 0.97 winners per million)

• New York ranks 2nd with 2.15 winners per million, despite having the most total wins (43)

• Michigan, Maryland, and Ohio round out the top five, all outperforming larger states like Texas, Florida, and Georgia

• If California matched New Jersey’s rate, it would have produced 111 jackpot winners instead of 38—a difference of 73 additional jackpots

California’s $6.27 Billion Can’t Buy a Top 5 Spot

A comprehensive study by Sweepsy.com analyzing all 255 Mega Millions jackpots awarded between May 2002 and January 2025 reveals that population size doesn’t predict lottery success the way most people assume. When raw win counts and total prize money are adjusted for population, the national rankings shift dramatically.

California’s 38 Mega Millions jackpot wins have delivered $6.27 billion to Golden State residents—$1.96 billion more than second-place New York ($4.81 billion) and nearly 2.5 times New Jersey’s total of $2.54 billion. Yet when those figures are divided by each state’s population using U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 Population Estimates, California ranks ninth in the nation for jackpot frequency.

The data shows California’s 39.36 million population dilutes its lottery performance considerably. The state produces 0.97 winners per million residents, compared to New Jersey’s 2.83 and New York’s 2.15. In direct comparison: New Jersey’s 27 wins from 9.55 million people outperform California’s 38 wins from 39.36 million people by a factor of 2.92.

New York Has 16 More Wins Than New Jersey—But Loses the Per-Capita Battle

New York’s 43 jackpot wins are the most of any state in the dataset—16 more than second-place California (38) and 16 more than New Jersey (27). But New York’s population of 20 million is 2.09 times larger than New Jersey’s 9.55 million.

When adjusted for population, New York produces 2.15 winners per million residents—24% behind New Jersey’s 2.83 rate. The gap becomes starker when examining total prize money: New York’s $4.81 billion across 43 wins equals $240.3 million per million residents. New Jersey’s $2.54 billion across 27 wins equals $422.3 million per million residents—75.7% higher than New York’s rate.

Michigan (1.78 winners per million), Maryland (rank #4), and Ohio (rank #5) round out the top five, all outperforming New York on a per-capita basis despite having far fewer total wins. Michigan’s 18 wins from 10.13 million residents put it ahead of Texas (15 wins, 31.71 million residents), Georgia (11 wins, 11.10 million residents), and Illinois (16 wins, 12.72 million residents) in per-capita terms.

The findings reveal a consistent pattern: raw totals tell one story, per-capita rates tell another. New York’s 43 wins are unmatched nationally, but its per-capita performance trails four smaller states. The 23-year dataset shows that population size and lottery success, while correlated in absolute terms, diverge sharply when measured per capita. States with populations between 9-11 million residents—New Jersey, Michigan, Ohio—dominate the top five rankings, while states with populations above 20 million consistently underperform relative to their size.

Methodology and Data Sources

The analysis draws on official jackpot data from MegaMillions.com covering all 255 jackpot wins between May 2002 and January 2025, representing $40.78 billion in total prizes. Population figures come from the U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 Population Estimates, released January 27, 2026.

Per-capita calculations divide total state wins by state population in millions (wins per million residents) and total prize dollars by state population in millions (dollars per million residents). The study includes 29 states that have produced at least one Mega Millions jackpot winner during the study period. States with zero wins were excluded from rankings.

New Jersey leads the nation for jackpot frequency at 2.83 wins per million residents (rank #1), and ranks second for total prize money per capita at $422.3 million per million residents. Maine claims the #1 spot for dollars per capita at $956 million per million, but that figure derives from a single $1.348 billion jackpot rather than sustained performance across multiple wins.

The complete dataset and state-by-state breakdown is available upon request.

About Sweepsy.com

Sweepsy.com is a leading resource for sweepstakes, lottery analysis, and prize competition insights, providing data-driven research and comprehensive coverage of major lottery games across the United States.

Banner Image: Lottery tickets. Image Credit – Erik Mclean